Written by Bandit
|
29 January 2010
As many fans and pundits cry foul and insist the NFL changes the way OT is handled, I want to step back and take a further look at the so-called coin flip bias. This is as good a topic as any for StatBandit to put a stake in the ground and start providing in depth analysis. In order to create useful analysis, data is king. This exercise has already demonstrated how difficult it can be to gather the data. Over the years, I've become adept at gathering data and inserting the data into spreadsheets for analysis and readability. In the initial research on this topic, you can find tons of opinions and only a few in depth studies. For a good one written 5 years ago, just google Ivars Peterson Football's Overtime Bias. Peterson's analysis appears very formal mathematically, but provides very little insight into the world of Football strategy.
My contention is that OT rules are just fine in their current format and maybe it's the coaching that needs to change.