| 29 January 2010
As many fans and pundits cry foul and insist the NFL changes the way OT is handled, I want to step back and take a further look at the so-called coin flip bias. This is as good a topic as any for StatBandit to put a stake in the ground and start providing in depth analysis. In order to create useful analysis, data is king. This exercise has already demonstrated how difficult it can be to gather the data. Over the years, I've become adept at gathering data and inserting the data into spreadsheets for analysis and readability. In the initial research on this topic, you can find tons of opinions and only a few in depth studies. For a good one written 5 years ago, just google Ivars Peterson Football's Overtime Bias. Peterson's analysis appears very formal mathematically, but provides very little insight into the world of Football strategy.
My contention is that OT rules are just fine in their current format and maybe it's the coaching that needs to change.
An economist by the name of Romer has published an article on how coaches should change their philosophy on punting on 4th down. I would like to apply that type of mindset to how coaches might change their philosophy of end of game management. All coaches know the impact and the rules of OT, which has been around in it's current form since 1974, and yet continue to play it safe and play for OT willing to accept the coin toss. My premise is that us fans should put the onus on coaching to change instead of the rules committee. How many times have we seen a coach send in the take a knee play to run the clock out just to get to OT. Well how's this for a novel concept, you've just scored a TD with seconds left to go and need the extra point to send the game into OT, instead maybe it is more advantageous to go for two and not feel the wrath of the coin toss. Now for the tough part, gathering the data.
Please feel free to provide input and I will keep you up to date as I make progress.